Ministers threaten to quit if Zuma stays

Posted 29 November 2016

Business Day reports that several ministers are planning to resign should President Zuma remain in office, raising the stakes in SA's growing political crisis. The choice for these ministers - who remain unnamed - are to face Zuma's axe or to pre-emptively push him to resign.

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SA faces its "Trump" moment

Posted 14 November 2016

South Africa looks like it is facing its own "Trump" moment. In this excellent analysis, Capital Economics suggests that President Zuma may have survived last week's no confidence vote, but his end is nigh nonetheless. Zuma's game plan is clearly to find a friendly successor ahead of the ANC's elective conference in December next year. Then he may choose to resign knowing he will likely escape prosecution for corruption. The succession battle will likely provide fodder for a newly energised opposition ahead of the presidential election in 2019. South Africa is ready to turn its back on the Zuma era.

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Working class Americans boot out the bums

Posted 09 November 2016

Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election is a victory of the working class over the oligarchs. But as former Ronald Reagan staffer Paul Craig Roberts points out, if Trump holds out the hand of conciliation to the neocons and warmongers who lurk at the trough of every US administration, then we will know that he has been captured by the oligarchs. The big loser in all this is the mainstream media, whose shameless shilling for Hillary Clinton was without precedent. Their credibility lies in tatters, and their priggish view of working class Americans has been exposed for all to see. Just one day ago the New York Times was calling it 87% certain that Clinton would win and the world would go on as it always has. Their readers are deserting them, as trust in establishment media hits an all-time low.  Ditto for the TV networks. Interesting times indeed.

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The tide has finally turned against Zuma

Posted 07 November 2016

The release of the state capture report by the Public Protector has shifted the balance of power away from President Zuma. Senior elements within the ANC now deem it safe to come out against him. Meanwhile the DA is shifting a chunk of its HQ to Johannesburg to ride a two and a half year campaign to unseat the ruling party from Gauteng, writes Keith Gottschalk.

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ANC smear campaigns go back a long way

Posted 27 October 2016

Former finance minister Trevor Manuel recently complained of a smear campaign involving the current finance minister Pravin Gordhan. But his memory is short. He might have mentioned the ANC's trumped up smear campaigns alleging a third force, falsely implicating former president FW de Klerk, IFP leader Mangosutu Buthelezi and others. These are just some of the smears the ruling party has confected over the years.

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The ANC is on the brink of all-out war - with itself

Posted 12 September 2016

The ANC is at war with itself, as the Occupy Luthuli House protests affirm. After the local government electoral disaster in which the ruling party lost most of SA's big cities to the opposition, the party of liberation should have entered a period of deep soul searching. Instead it has atomised into various factions each seeking ascendancy and retribution, as this editorial from Mail & Guardian points out.

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Pulling the plug on funding may save SA

Posted 07 September 2016

President Jacob Zuma is not one to back down from a fight, particularly one where he was humiliated. In this case, he was forced to appoint Pravin Gordhan as his finance minister after trying to shoe-horn a hopelessly unqualified Des van Rooyen into that post. In this article, Gumani Tshimomola, a researcher for the Economic Freedom Fighter's parliamentary caucus, explains why the decision by certain investors to stop funding SA's state corporations may save SA in the long run.

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Tshwane's DA mayor tells ANC majority they are "heading to jail"

Posted 04 September 2016

Tshwane's new Democratic Alliance mayor Solly Msimanga pulled out five forensic reports last week and told recently dethroned ANC councillors that some of them will soon be wearing orange jump suits.

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RW Johnson's take on post-election SA - it's not good for the ANC

Posted 04 September 2016

In this interview, author of How Long Will South Africa Survive?, RW Johnson, sees the ANC as a party in retreat, with its more militant members seeking to make Joburg and Tshwane ungovernable, just as they did when the National Party was in control. The ANC has become the National Party version 2, with President Zuma astride a giant system of patronage and corruption. His repeated attacks on his finance minister, Pravin Gordhan, who has refused to sign off on SAA's financial statements, speaks volumes about the feud currently underway eating the heart of the ANC. The question is, can Zuma survive till the next presidential election in 2019? 

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DA mayors set to lead Pretoria and Johannesburg

Posted 18 August 2016

The Democratic Alliance (DA), with the support of smaller parties, is set to appoint mayors for Johannesburg and Pretoria. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party will not join a formal alliance with the DA, but will vote with it on specific issues.

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Local government elections show wit gevaar politics have failed

Posted 16 August 2016

More blacks voted for the Democratic Alliance than did whites, and in a city with just a 15% white population - Nelson Mandela Bay - a white mayor in the form of Athol Trollip is about to take office. The ANC's attempt at racial mobilisation has failed, just as the National Party of old attempted to scare white voters with the "black threat". The ANC's troubles from here will likely multiply, showing how far of course the party of liberation has strayed.

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What the election results of 2016 tell us about 2019

Posted 08 August 2016

The 2016 local government elections offer a tantalising taste of what is to come in the 2019 presidential elections. The Democratic Alliance has promised it would become the dominant party by 2019, but to do that is a tough ask. The way to achieve this goal is to focus on reorganising Gauteng in the same way it did Cape Town, and create a model of governance that will peel away millions of voters from a decrepid ANC.

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ANC in a race to the bottom

Posted 02 August 2016

Given recent statements by two former presidents, Thabo Mbeki and Kgalema Motlanthe, one wonders whether these men will vote for the party of Nelson Mandela at all, or whether they wil abstain, or perhaps even vote for the opposition. Motlanthe was recently reported to have said the ANC is engaged in a race to the bottom. Strong words from the former leader of the country.

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New poll shows the ANC set to lose major cities

Posted 28 July 2016

A new poll by Ipsos shows the ANC losing its dominant position to the Democratic Alliance in next week's local government elections in three major urban centres: Joburg, Pretoria and Port Elizabeth. Cape Town has long since been under DA control. The ANC says its own polls come to a different conclusion. The trend is clear: the ANC will, like Zani-PF in Zimbabwe, from hereon have to rely on the rural vote.  

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We're in an election, and it doesn't look good for the ANC

Posted 06 June 2016

It's official. We are in an election and nearly 3m new voters have registered. Gareth van Onselen crunches the numbers, and suggests it doesn't look good for the ANC. It's unlikely it will win the 60% it claimed in the last election, but much depends on the energy of the opposition in these last few months before voting.

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Gordhan being hounded by a disintegrating government

Posted 23 May 2016

Finance minister Pravin Gordhan's "imminent" arrest for allegedly setting up a rogue investigations unit in SA Revenue Services some years ago is a symptom of the disintegration within the government. The Hawks could better use their time chasing down the R25,7bn in irregular spending reported by the auditor general in 2014, and nearly R1bn more in fruitless and wasteful spending. 

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Zuma's back - is Pravin on borrowed time?

Posted 15 May 2016

The presidency was quick to squash rumours that finance minister Pravin Gordhan is about to be arrested for his alleged role in setting up a rogue investigations unit when he headed up SA Revenue Services. But the Hawks appear to have other plans. Zuma's recent behaviour suggests he is far from beaten. His mood was ebullient in recent days as visited Eskom's head office and declared power cuts a thing of the past. Then it was on to SAA to bestow his blessings there. Maybe Pravin will see out his term to 2019, but don't count on it.

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Herman Mashaba - South Africa's Donald Trump?

Posted 14 April 2016

Herman Mashaba founded the cosmetics group Black Like Me in the teeth of apartheid oppression and has built several successful businesses since then. Last year he announced he was joining the Democratic Alliance and has put his name forward as a mayoral candidate for Johannesburg. He wants to see an end to all race-based legislation, the repeal of Section 32 of the Labour Relations Act that extends collective bargaining agreements to companies that are not party to these agreements, and focus instead on building the small business sector. What would Joburg look like under Mayor Mashaba?

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The fall of Zuma and the Guptas

Posted 17 March 2016

Revelations that the wealthy Gupta family have been offering ministerial posts to ANC members has shaken the political establishment to its core. It's clear that President Zuma's days are numbered - and with him will go the shadowy influence of the Guptas.

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Memo to Moodys: Zuma is the cause of our demise

Posted 14 March 2016

Dear Moodys, before you downgrade SA to junk status, give us a few more months to get rid of the cause of all our troubles - Jacob Zuma. Once that happens, South Africa's resurgence can begin, writes Wayne Duvenage.

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The day Zuma handed over power to Gordhan

Posted 24 February 2016

President Zuma's swagger is gone, replaced by a diminished man in trouble. This was evident during his State of the Nation address. As Allister Sparks points out, Zuma has effectively handed over control of the country to his finance minister, Pravin Gordhan.

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Can SA escape the boiling pot in time?

Posted 18 February 2016

President Zuma is not having an easy time of it. His State of the Nation address was an attempt to appease the left while pretending to promote investment. If there is one ray of sunshine in this mess, it is that Zuma will actually subject proposed new laws to economic impact assessments, to see whether or not they will do harm or good. 

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Malema is SA's disastrous Hugo Chavez in waiting

Posted 08 February 2016

Julius Malema has fashioned himself on the late Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez, seemingly oblivious of the fact that one in 10 Venezeulans plan to leave the country of their birth - such is the economic misery visited on them by the Chavez revolution. David Pilling of the Financial Times took Malema to lunch and ended up paying for seven of his comrades.

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ANC veteran Denis Goldberg rips the ruling party a new one

Posted 05 February 2016

ANC veteran Denis Goldberg, friend of Nelson Mandela and a Rivonia trialist who spent 22 years behind bars for his political beliefs, says the ruling party is in for a nasty shock in the upcoming local elections. He also wonders how millionaire Julius Malema can speak for the poor.

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All this talk of inequality is bogus

Posted 27 January 2016

Oxfam recently put out a report about the supposedly alarming growth of poverty and inequality. Oxfam is an anti-poverty, socialist carry-over from a by-gone era. It thrives on poverty and finds it everywhere, even when the actual evidence suggests otherwise.

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