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Electricity Regulation Act, 2006 (Act No. 4 of 2006)


Integrated Resource Plan 2019

6. Appendices

6.4 Appendix D : Summary of Published Draft IRP 2018

6.4.3 Conclusions from Analysis of the Scenarios


The following conclusions are drawn from the results of the analysis:


The review of the IRP implies that the pace and scale of new capacity developments needed up to 2030 must be curtailed compared with that in the promulgated IRP 2010–2030 projections.
Ministerial Determinations for capacity beyond Bid Window 4 (27 signed projects) issued under the promulgated IRP 2010–2030 must be reviewed and revised in line with the projected system requirements.
The scenario without RE annual build limits provides the least-cost electricity path to 2050.
Without a policy intervention, all technologies included in the promulgated IRP 2010–2030 where prices have not come down like in the case of PV and wind, will not be deployed because the least-cost option only contains PV, wind and gas.
The significant change in the energy mix post 2030 indicates the sensitivity of the results observed to the assumptions made. A slight change in the assumptions can therefore change the path chosen. In-depth analysis of the assumptions and the economic implications of the electricity infrastructure development path chosen post 2030 will contribute to the mitigation of this risk.