Electricity Regulation Act, 2006 (Act No. 4 of 2006)
Integrated Resource Plan 2019
4. Input Parameter Assumptions
4.4 CO2 Emission Constraints
In line with South Africa’s commitment to reduce emissions, the promulgated IRP 2010–2030 imposed CO2 emission limits on the electricity generation plan. IRP 2010-2030 assumed that emissions would peak between 2020 and 2025 as Medupi and Kusile are brought on line, then plateau for approximately a decade and decline in absolute terms thereafter as old coal-fired power plants are decommissioned.
Figure 8 shows the emission reduction trajectory (referred to as the peak-plateau-decline (PPD)) for electricity generation adopted in the promulgated IRP 2010–2030.
While PPD was applied as the primary assumption, a scenario was tested as part of the draft IRP 2018 where the carbon budget approach was used for emission constraints. A carbon budget is defined as a tolerable quantity of carbon dioxide emissions that can be emitted in total over a specified time. The scenario was based on carbon budget targets divided into 10-year intervals which meant a total emission reduction budget for the entire electricity sector up to 2050 must be 5 470 Mt CO2 cumulatively.